Do you support Elon Musk's peace plan for Ukraine?

A brief look at historical background

Perception Deception, an avid commenter on Edward Slavsquat Substack blog, has asked me a question, do I support Elon Musk's proposal for a peace plan for Ukraine? Ahh, such a seemingly innocent question that is actually touching on a huge historical and cultural make up of the relationship between Russia and Ukraine...

My answer was: I would support Musk's plan, if this plan didn't concern Ukraine. As experience of the last 30 years showed - it is impossible to sign any treaties with Ukraine. Well, let me qualify, yes, it is possible to sign a treaty, but it is impossible to make Ukraine follow the conditions of the treaty, especially if the other side of the treaty is Russia. Just look at Minsk-1 and Minsk-2 as the latest example. Simple and clear agreements, with described step-by-step step process, which actually, given the circumstances, were working to Ukraine's advantage. But what Ukraine did instead? They first paid a lip service saying we are trying to comply, but in reality sabotaging every part of the agreement, beginning with the very basis - they didn't remove high caliber artillery and tanks from the front line. Then they tried to change the accord, but finally came to a complete denial of it, saying - we will not comply, period. While not in such a refined form, that much is true for the relationship between US and Russia as well.

This is just one major example of the recent years, but there are many of the other ones from the time of gaining independence in 1991 and even the latest failed Istanbul accord. Every time we observed the same pattern, Ukraine signs an agreement, but then it refuses to follow it and doing it in such way as to stick it to Russians. This pattern of behavior has historical roots and actually represents the major difference in mentality between Russians and Ukrainians, that otherwise have similar cultural constructs and are highly intertwined. Russians are sticklers to signed agreements, Ukrainians are not. If you look at the history of re-unification of Russia with Ukraine, that started in 1654 with the decision by cossack council of Pereyaslav to ask Russian tsar Alexey Mikhailovich to take them under his protection, the pattern there during the initial decades of the joint national living was much the same - no matter what agreement said, getmans were doing what they pleased.

So, based on history, Russia has no choice, but to control Eastern and Central Ukraine, while allowing Poles to take over the Western part. Poles in particular are great at dealing with Ukrainian brazenness as they have none of Russian sensibilities - "Oh, Ukrainians, we love you so much! What more can we do for you?". Instead their motto is - "You live now in Poland so you must speak Polish and follow our rules. But why do we talk at all? Go and work, you chłop!" If Russia doesn't do that and significant portion of Ukraine remains as "independent" entity, they will always sell themselves to the highest bidder to be a tool against Russia. So even if Musk's plan was to be accepted and signed by both sides, it wouldn't work long term anyway. But, I'm afraid it is too late for such plan since both sides went too far already.

I'm writing this as someone who is part ethnic Ukrainian, born and raised in Ukraine. I know my people.