Kherson: defend or not defend?
Situation in and around Kherson and why it may lead us to much more serious escalation
As many of you, those who watch the Russo-Ukrainian war closely, know - past few days we had a flurry of activity there at a high level. Russian head of the Ministry of Defense, Sergey Shoygu, had several phone calls with his colleagues from the leading NATO countries. He had two calls with US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, UK Defense Secretary, Ben Wallace, French and Turkey top defense officials and today even with Chinese defense minister. Main subject of these communications was Russia's concern about the potential for a "dirty nuclear bomb" explosion by Ukraine.
While Ukraine did not develop yet a traditional nuclear weapon, it has plenty of radioactive materials from existing nuclear power plants and from Chernobyl area, where in addition to the nuclear reactors that existed prior to plant shutdown after 1986 catastrophe, also nuclear waste from around Europe is being buried there. Russian side has even provided specifics of the false flag operation presumably planned by Ukraine. They say that Ukrainian side has made their Tochka U rocket (Russia discontinued using them several years ago) to look like a modern Russian Iskander rocket on the outside, and had the warhead made up of regular explosive cassettes intermingled with highly radioactive materials. They say Ukrainians are planning to launch it over Chernobyl area and to simulate an air defense strike of this rocket presenting afterwards photos of the Russian looking rocket that is also going to produce large amounts of radiation that may even be picked-up by the European radiation ground monitoring stations.
The other major Russian concern is Ukraine succeeding at destroying Kakhovskaya hydro power plant dam (now under Russian control) and blaming it on Russia, of course. If a significant breach of the dam is created, the ensuing flood will affect 80% of the city of Kherson and other towns and villages downstream from dam on the river Dniepr.
In order to address the potential threat ahead of time and not to repeat Kharkov situation where civilians who's loyalty was with Russia were left there to deal with returning Ukrainian troops, Russia is evacuating them from the right bank of Dniepr where the most impact of the potential flood is going to be felt and greater possibility of Ukrainian troops taking over exists. Most of civilians are taken first to Crimea and then to the mainland Russian regions where they are offered option to resettle there.
These preparations for a potential retreat from at least one part of Kherson are a cause for speculation and a debate if Kherson should be defended at all costs, making it into Stalingrad 2.0, or should it be given up for now and retaken after mobilized have reached the front and the overall situation turned to Russia's favor. To present the opinions on this subject I have picked a Telegram post by a popular Telegram channel in Russia @genshab "Шпион которому никто не пишет" (Spy that nobody writes to) - this post stirred a lot of emotions in the Telegram community and beyond. And I have chosen a response to this post by @notes_veterans "Zаписки Vетерана" (Veteran's Notes) that states that given the situation, retreating from the part of the city Kherson and from the right bank of Kherson region is going to work to Russia's advantage. I'm presenting these two polar opinions simply as an illustration to the type of discussion in the Russian patriotic community, a point of view not heard very often outside of Russia since most of the sources support either Western officialdom in support of Ukraine or the Russian one that is a strange hybrid of the desire to reinstate a sovereign nation, but on the other hand a complete support for the Globalist agenda. I retain the original language of these posts, including expressions that I could not agree with, such as calling all of Ukrainian military "Ukrainian Nazis". There is a far right extremist element in Ukrainian military represented by various battalions, now regiments, like Azov. But most of Ukrainian military are regular folks that do what most of us would have done - go and defend their country against foreign aggressor.
This post probably wouldn't interest most of my subscribers as it goes deep into the Russian perceptions of this war, but given the situation today, with pending US midterm elections, CCP's twentieth Congress that ended in a complete victory of Xi Jinping and his clan. The potential for a nuclear provocation that can lead us to a further, very dangerous escalation of the conflict, possible disaster menacing one of the largest cities of Ukraine - all of this may create circumstances that will affect all of us.
Btw, Telegram posts that I translated have been created several days ago at the end of last week. For now the situation at the Kherson front is fairly stable. But, as we know, this can change in a moment's notice.
Telegram post by @genshab (Spy that nobody writes to)
October 23, 2022
At the moment, Russia is withdrawing from the entire right bank of the Kherson region, including the capital – the city of Kherson.
The city, which has a huge symbolic and political significance, the first and only regional center with a virtually completely liberated region, will soon be abandoned.
This is happening against the background of the Kharkov disaster, which was accompanied by demonstrative executions of civilians who believed that Russia was there to stay.
All the statements that the city and the region will be defended, and Kherson will become a fortress city turned out to be null and void.
Despite the stable and even successful situation at the front, Russian forces are withdrawing to the left bank (of the Dniepr river).
A lot of "forecasters" point to the impossibility of proper supplies to the group holding a foothold at the right bank of the river in the absence of bridges, but they leave out of consideration lost time and opportunities for supply and consolidation in the territory of the region.
Everyone is waiting for some kind of cunning plan to be executed by the enemy, starting from a nuclear strike and ending with a more "modest" option of blowing up the dam.
Let's leave emotion and probability theory outside, and look at the actual consequences of this perspective when it becomes a reality.
The first and most important thing that will happen is the birth of a precedent of territorial seizure from the Russian Federation by force.
Russia has a number of obvious, open but also many hidden territorial conflicts, certainly not in favor of our country.
Secondly, in case of abandoning Kherson referendums of all four new subjects of the Russian Federation, including Crimea, will be losing their political force. And this is already the beginning of the process of destroying the integrity of the country. The next stage of this drama will unfold in the Crimea.
Third, in aggregate, it undermines the political consensus of modern Russia, which was based on the return of Crimea.
Which, in turn, destroys the basis of the country's sovereignty, the application for political independence, which was filed in 2008, and fixed in 2014.
Of course, these were forced and reactive actions, but they became the ideological foundation of modern Russia and the justification for the burdens that fell on the population.
All this sets the stage for a political catastrophe, the launch of those patterns that, together, from inside and outside, will put an end to Russia on the world map in the form that we have known it since the XVI century.
Russia as the longest existing country and a great power will cease to exist.
Separately, I want to say about the subtle matter – what is called the cultural and historical basis.
The Russian people always had a lasting property to resist.
Today Russia continues to live in a crooked reflection of the past against the background of the huge demand of the Russian people for self-determination in the world, the search and consolidation of its place and its competitive future.
In 2014, the Russian state abandoned its historical role in favor of private and corporate interests, ignoring the increasing threats from Ukraine for eight years, driving itself into a historical impasse in blind denial.
The state and the people were perceived by the ruling class not as something of value, but as a resource. The state tradition has critically degraded during this time, and these are the walls of our house.
And what's inside?
Inside, what is called a negative identity has developed.
When national interests turn out to be a screen for business of the most disgusting nature, when indifference and denial of personal responsibility rule at the very top, when a Russian person is denied protection and recognition.
When he is betrayed, the state betrays him, again and again.
This leads to the denial of their own identity, their cultural and historical foundations, values and goals, deep apathy and, as a consequence, national disintegration.
The deathbed pain and horror of hundreds and thousands of torn civilians in Ukraine who believed in Russia and were deceived. They were allowed to be killed and tortured by whole families – this infernal nightmare will one day transform into a gaping void inside the country.
And the walls will fall inwards, they will have nothing to support them.
This emptiness, the lack of will to resist, is becoming a chronic feature of our state.
And this is a historical verdict.
I want to be wrong.
Telegram post by @notes_veterans (Veteran's Notes)
October 23, 2022
Kherson, shelling and the war with NATO, Part 1
It will probably turn out to be a very large text. To be honest, I have already lost the habit of writing such things, but since I now have the time and desire to write. I am writing based on my own analysis of the situation. And by popular request of subscribers.
There are a lot of questions about Kherson right now. The Runet (Russian language portion of the Internet) is seething with disputes, speculation on the topic of surrender, we will not surrender, it is necessary to make Stalingrad 2.0 from Kherson or it is not necessary, etc. I will omit the ethical motives of those who call for Kherson to become a Stalingrad 2.0, sitting in a cozy apartment somewhere in Central Russia.
Let's start with the fact that the course of hostilities after the Kharkov retreat has changed dramatically. All the negative sides of the command and the situation as a whole were revealed. Before the Kharkov retreat, false reports about the real state of affairs in the troops went up the chain of command. There was a wild shortage of units that were exhausted by marches, battles and endless regroupings. The absence of ammunition of a certain caliber was concealed. The lack of advanced equipment (night vision and thermal visors) of the troops was hidden from the view. There was a lack of communication equipment, generally, as a kind. Fearing for their well-being the bosses lied, lied and lied. In Moscow, relying on the reports coming from the front line they demanded to continue the offensive, according to the reports, the regiment was staffed by 90%, so why can't you take the village for so long!? But because in reality there was only one battalion tactical group left left in the regiment (1/3 of a standard regiment) and even without proper equipment. And when this abscess matured, and the Ukrainian Nazis quietly managed to create strike groups in three directions for half a year, at a critical moment everything burst in an instant. The front crumbled, the troops almost lost control. And that's when a cold shower doused everyone, but I think first of all those officials who are in Moscow. The heads of stupid generals and commanders were figuratively flying, those who were engaged in false reports (although quietly, you will not find anything about it in public access, except for the removal of General Bulgakov from the post of a head of Army Supplies department), and in Moscow they finally realized that the situation was critical. It was from this moment that the real work of preparing for WAR began. Not for the Special Military Operation, but for the WAR. That means, Russia began preparing for war in September 2022. Historical cliche: Russia was once again not ready for war. Therefore, we are now seeing what is happening now - daily shelling of Russian territory in Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk and other regions. The surrender of Kherson is overdue. Yes, I do not know all the nuances and plans of the command, but I do not rule out the surrender of Kherson, because from a military point of view, its defense at the moment can turn into a rout. For I have no doubt that the Ukrainian Nazis will destroy the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power plant in order to cut off our Russian troops from the left bank and flood the city. They will do it with a 100% probability. Whether it is necessary now to go to the creation of Stalingrad 2.0 in such conditions and whether Kherson will be able to become one, I do not know. But I think that if Moscow decided to FIGHT and to fight until Victory, then there is nothing tragic in the surrender of Kherson, because this is a war and a war for a long haul, with the possible direct participation of NATO in it. Hence, strategic planning is also possible, in which the surrender of the city is possible, but only with the aim that after certain preparations are made, the city of Kherson and not only Kherson, but also the entire right-bank territory will be liberated and will become part of Russia. Symbolic retention of something in an unfavorable position, as a rule, leads to defeat. For example, in 1941, the Soviet command on orders from Stalin categorically forbade the surrender of Kiev, as a result of which Kiev was still taken, and half a million soldiers were surrounded and captured. Yes, many people can now cite Stalingrad as an example, but can we repeat it? After all, Stalingrad was held only at the cost of huge losses. But those who call for making Stalingrad out of Kherson they do not want to bear losses either. So symbols are symbols, and I'm for strategy. If the Russian command decided to wage war to the bitter end, there is nothing terrible in the surrender of Kherson. Moreover, now the experience of the Kharkov failure is taken into account and the population is being evacuated in advance.
More of this, please.
And thanks for attempting to bridge the gap of understanding between concerned, (largely) non-Russian speaking Americans such as myself. The thoughts of educated and informed east Slav cousins are of great interest to me.