Curious discussion is happening in Russia's social media regarding events of the last night. Many, I'd say most, are convinced, it was not the explosion on Crimea bridge or shelling of Donetsk and towns in Russia proper that led to this response, but the public opinion in Russia that forced president to do at least something in retaliation to calm the people down. Putin's rating is dropping rapidly and not because of the usual 15% of the pro-Western liberals in the country, but because of the average patriotic Russians, many of whom were Putin voters, are beginning to ask the question, what kind of strange war is that and why does president behave in a way that is difficult to explain or understand in these circumstances? People were very disappointed with Putin's address at the security council meeting today when in the end he said that Russia will retaliate IF Ukraine is going to continue with sabotage and terrorist activity on Russian territory. To many it meant that events of the last night are a one time measure designed to appease the population and to improve negotiating position. None of the key infrastructure objects such as bridges and railroads were destroyed or even attacked, this means that NATO armaments and supplies can still flow uninhibited to the front line. Damage caused to electric/heat generation plants can be fixed in a couple of weeks. Interestingly enough SBU building in Kiev wasn't apparently even hit by a rocket - rocket exploded somewhere nearby, it was also done in the wee hours as not to cause extra casualties among the SBU servicemen. Same is true for Zelensky office-residence in the center of Kiev. Precision weapons are suddenly not precise anymore? People in Russia were betrayed during this military campaign so many times that it is going to take some time to restore confidence in Putin and the military even if the right things are going to be done from now on. We'll see what is going to happen in the next couple of days, but if this was the extent of retaliating response, this may further direct public opinion in Russia against Putin and not for him. Dangerous games. Remember 1917.
Thanks so much for your high opinion of my humble work that I do for nothing else but to bring a bit of objectivity into today's highly partisan and and biased world!
Новые удары по критической инфраструктуре. Винницкая область, Запорожье, Николаевщина, Киев, Львов, Ровно, Одесская область, Хмельницкая…
@sashakots (Telegram)
New strikes on critical infrastructure. Vinnitsa region, Zaporozhye region, Nikolaev region, Kiev, Lvov, Rovno, Odessa region, Khmelnitskiy region...
@sashakots (Telegram)
Despite some signs that yesterday's strikes were a one time "warning" to Zelensky to stop terror attacks on Russian territory, rocket and drone attacks on the energy infrastructure of major Ukrainian cities continued today. Iranian drone, Shahed-136 bought by Russian military and renamed Geran'-2 (Geranium-2) was named by Ukrainians a "moped from hell", because of the sound of its two-stroke engine that sounds exactly as a lonely moped in the sky. Easy target for the air defense systems the effectiveness of this cheap kamikaze drone goes up as air defense becomes overwhelmed with other targets. On average 40% of these drones are not reaching their targets, but considering the cost of each that is an order of magnitude less than a cost of a guided missile, their use perfectly makes sense from a military perspective. So far the signs are that appointment of general Surovikin as overall commander of the SMO indicates the change in approach. It only took Russians 8 months to figure out that their SMO needs a central command and not under a defense minister Shoygu, who didn't spend a day in the army before he was appointed to lead Ministry of Defense, but an actual military officer with combat experience.
Ukrainian, US, Britain's, NATO and EU response to the changing strategy of the SMO is not entirely clear yet. I think we can expect Ukrainians to start using guided missiles capable of going 300 km or deeper into the Russian territory. We can also see supplies of greater quantity of air defense systems by the West as well as gradual shift of Ukrainian Air Force to start using F-15, F-16 jet fighters as supplies of Soviet jets is dwindling down and more Ukrainian pilots are being trained to use American planes.
Rapidly approaching winter is, as usual, working to Russia's advantage. Propensity of the Western side, including Ukraine, to come to a negotiations table is going to increase as weather is getting colder. Russia would probably agree to a "frozen conflict" scenario when without recognizing annexed regions by the West as part of Russia hostilities would temporarily stop, for a year or two allowing sides to come up with further strategies. The biggest problem in this plan is Ukraine, as it is simply not capable of complying with an agreement, especially when the opposite side there is Russia. We may see return to a repeat of Minsk-2 accord that on paper mandated peace and removal of heavy weapons from the front line, but in reality none of it was done, with Ukrainian side leading the way in violating this agreement.
As i have just wrote, the population in the countries under the diktats of the EU and it's non elected leaders, epitomized by 'Van der Alien' are just about to live a nightmare. Will our countries, that is, mainly Germany, France, Italy, Spain... be able to keep financing the Ukro madness. From what I can see, the situation is socially very explosive.
Not to speak about the Turkish/Greek present situation which is very tense, to say the least. How will the EU, with it's dying phony money deal with it? How long will the EU last?
I have high hopes for France that it retains its cool and social cohesion. What is important about France is that people there didn't loose their passion to defend their rights and social standards. Not entirely, anyway. France is also a great mix of native French and people from Africa and Arab countries, and while this upsets some European purists (I put it mildly), that, in my view creates a dynamism in society that allows it not to fall asleep in a consumerist coma.
Curious discussion is happening in Russia's social media regarding events of the last night. Many, I'd say most, are convinced, it was not the explosion on Crimea bridge or shelling of Donetsk and towns in Russia proper that led to this response, but the public opinion in Russia that forced president to do at least something in retaliation to calm the people down. Putin's rating is dropping rapidly and not because of the usual 15% of the pro-Western liberals in the country, but because of the average patriotic Russians, many of whom were Putin voters, are beginning to ask the question, what kind of strange war is that and why does president behave in a way that is difficult to explain or understand in these circumstances? People were very disappointed with Putin's address at the security council meeting today when in the end he said that Russia will retaliate IF Ukraine is going to continue with sabotage and terrorist activity on Russian territory. To many it meant that events of the last night are a one time measure designed to appease the population and to improve negotiating position. None of the key infrastructure objects such as bridges and railroads were destroyed or even attacked, this means that NATO armaments and supplies can still flow uninhibited to the front line. Damage caused to electric/heat generation plants can be fixed in a couple of weeks. Interestingly enough SBU building in Kiev wasn't apparently even hit by a rocket - rocket exploded somewhere nearby, it was also done in the wee hours as not to cause extra casualties among the SBU servicemen. Same is true for Zelensky office-residence in the center of Kiev. Precision weapons are suddenly not precise anymore? People in Russia were betrayed during this military campaign so many times that it is going to take some time to restore confidence in Putin and the military even if the right things are going to be done from now on. We'll see what is going to happen in the next couple of days, but if this was the extent of retaliating response, this may further direct public opinion in Russia against Putin and not for him. Dangerous games. Remember 1917.
Thank you very much Stanley. Great article... "precision weapon are suddenly not precise anymore?" Good question.
Things could escalate pretty wildly since the actors at all level are psychopaths.
In France, the situation is just catastrophic, sick, at all level of society. It is a societal collapse.
Meanwhile, keep writing since you become one of the most interesting writer and thinker on the subject.
Thanks so much for your high opinion of my humble work that I do for nothing else but to bring a bit of objectivity into today's highly partisan and and biased world!
Новые удары по критической инфраструктуре. Винницкая область, Запорожье, Николаевщина, Киев, Львов, Ровно, Одесская область, Хмельницкая…
@sashakots (Telegram)
New strikes on critical infrastructure. Vinnitsa region, Zaporozhye region, Nikolaev region, Kiev, Lvov, Rovno, Odessa region, Khmelnitskiy region...
@sashakots (Telegram)
Despite some signs that yesterday's strikes were a one time "warning" to Zelensky to stop terror attacks on Russian territory, rocket and drone attacks on the energy infrastructure of major Ukrainian cities continued today. Iranian drone, Shahed-136 bought by Russian military and renamed Geran'-2 (Geranium-2) was named by Ukrainians a "moped from hell", because of the sound of its two-stroke engine that sounds exactly as a lonely moped in the sky. Easy target for the air defense systems the effectiveness of this cheap kamikaze drone goes up as air defense becomes overwhelmed with other targets. On average 40% of these drones are not reaching their targets, but considering the cost of each that is an order of magnitude less than a cost of a guided missile, their use perfectly makes sense from a military perspective. So far the signs are that appointment of general Surovikin as overall commander of the SMO indicates the change in approach. It only took Russians 8 months to figure out that their SMO needs a central command and not under a defense minister Shoygu, who didn't spend a day in the army before he was appointed to lead Ministry of Defense, but an actual military officer with combat experience.
Ukrainian, US, Britain's, NATO and EU response to the changing strategy of the SMO is not entirely clear yet. I think we can expect Ukrainians to start using guided missiles capable of going 300 km or deeper into the Russian territory. We can also see supplies of greater quantity of air defense systems by the West as well as gradual shift of Ukrainian Air Force to start using F-15, F-16 jet fighters as supplies of Soviet jets is dwindling down and more Ukrainian pilots are being trained to use American planes.
Rapidly approaching winter is, as usual, working to Russia's advantage. Propensity of the Western side, including Ukraine, to come to a negotiations table is going to increase as weather is getting colder. Russia would probably agree to a "frozen conflict" scenario when without recognizing annexed regions by the West as part of Russia hostilities would temporarily stop, for a year or two allowing sides to come up with further strategies. The biggest problem in this plan is Ukraine, as it is simply not capable of complying with an agreement, especially when the opposite side there is Russia. We may see return to a repeat of Minsk-2 accord that on paper mandated peace and removal of heavy weapons from the front line, but in reality none of it was done, with Ukrainian side leading the way in violating this agreement.
Stanley,
As i have just wrote, the population in the countries under the diktats of the EU and it's non elected leaders, epitomized by 'Van der Alien' are just about to live a nightmare. Will our countries, that is, mainly Germany, France, Italy, Spain... be able to keep financing the Ukro madness. From what I can see, the situation is socially very explosive.
Not to speak about the Turkish/Greek present situation which is very tense, to say the least. How will the EU, with it's dying phony money deal with it? How long will the EU last?
Thank you.
I have high hopes for France that it retains its cool and social cohesion. What is important about France is that people there didn't loose their passion to defend their rights and social standards. Not entirely, anyway. France is also a great mix of native French and people from Africa and Arab countries, and while this upsets some European purists (I put it mildly), that, in my view creates a dynamism in society that allows it not to fall asleep in a consumerist coma.
Great post as always, Stanley. I will be including it in an upcoming post recommending other writers to follow.
Stanley should be definitely invited to your podcast, he is brilliant.