Kherson fallout

Consequences of giving-up Kherson for Russia

Decision by Russian authorities to retreat from Kherson that one month earlier was declared to be a part of the Russian Federation after a referendum starts to bring far ranging consequences that Russian authorities and people overall are beginning to face.

Regarding the reasons for withdrawal. First of all, after the fact that grouping of 30 thousand troops together with their heavy military equipment was able to abandon their positions at the right bank of Dniepr for the left bank in only two days, show us that the reason presented for leaving these positions as "difficulty with logistics" wasn't a valid one. Same applies to the military component - all military experts on the Russian side that are allowed to speak somewhat freely confirm that there wasn't a military necessity for this withdrawal, but even more - this withdrawal brings a serious strategic military disadvantage that will be very difficult and costly to overcome in the future. This decision is seen strictly as a political one, a tradeoff negotiated to benefit Russian resource oligarchs, exporting to the West things such as grain, fertilizers, metals, oil and other natural resources. As a result of the deal sanctions were removed from oligarch Abramovich who took active part in negotiations. Previously arrested at the European ports Russian ships with fertilizer were released, UN started bidding for the fast normalization of Russian grain trading. London Metal Exchange backed off from their decision to ban Russian metals from trading there. India was allowed to buy Russian oil for the price above the limit established by G7 and not face any sanctions. There were many other smaller signs for a changing position toward Russia, mostly as it relates to Russia's ability to sell their resources to the West.

So, the decision to retreat yet another time, after earlier retreats from the regions of Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy, Kharkov was strictly political one and even more, purely economic in a sense that it benefited few that make their living selling Russia's natural riches to the West - Abramovich, Potanin, Lisin, Mikhelson, Deripaska and many others, while ignoring rest of the country. This creates a precarious situation for the ruling class in Russia when even pro-Kremlin figures, like Russian writer Alexander Prokhanov, figure as grand in standing there as philosopher Dugin, are recognizing bankruptcy of not only the Russian elites, but even the head of the country in managing the current situation. Putin used to be considered above the fight by such figures, but no longer. While not being blamed directly, he is also being held accountable along with the rest of the ruling class.

Putin's non-appearance at the G20 summit in Bali, probably justified because of his personal security concerns, puts Russia in a position of a disadvantage when it can't have direct dialogue at the top level with non-aligned, non-Western countries on which Russia depends now more than ever for economic cooperation.

For the first time since 1999, both, liberal and patriotic opposition in Russia, came to the same conclusion - Putin is not the right leader for the given historical moment. Clearly, they are hoping for diametrically opposing outcomes after replacing Putin, but, at least they agree on one point, country can't continue under current leader for much longer. Talks about ahead of schedule presidential election in 2023 are getting louder and louder.

What Russian pro-power, pro status quo elites are hoping for while driving agenda of shameful deals that is in clear dissonance with the public opinion? Are they hoping that population will remain inert and for whatever small outbreaks that may happen they have Rosguardia (troops of Ministry of the Interior) that are going to take care of the rioters? Are they forgetting there are now 500 thousand of armed men hardened by the horrors of war that may ask them what the sacrifices were for if the hard earned gains are easily given up for the trade deals benefiting only the richest of the rich?

To understand the situation from the Russian patriotic perspective, below I present translation of an article by Katyusha.org - a left leaning, anti-globalist, patriotic news portal. It is very indicative of how the situation is viewed by 60% to 65% of the population (in my estimate) many of whom used to be ardent Putin supporters.

Here is the link to original. In addition to translating the article I have provided short contextual references in square brackets for people less familiar with the political actors and history of Russia.

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"PATRIOTIC MAIDAN" AND BETRAYAL OF THE AUTHORITIES: THREATS AND REALITY

Against the background of the activation of the scum, which used to be called "liberals", and the undisguised joy of their Western hosts about the upcoming "agreement" with the "IV Reich", Russian social networks actively began to promote the topic of "Patriotic Maidan" [Maidan - Ukrainian word for public square, became a synonym for the revolts that happened 2 times in Kiev's Independence Square in 2004 and 2014]. They say that patriots are the main enemy of Russia, who only sleep and see in their dreams how to arrange a bloody orgy at home. This theme is old. These well-known political technologies were first used in 2014, during the pension reform and lately during COVID-craziness. What they have led to, we can clearly see today, but instead of organizing, mobilizing the economy and putting forward demands on the oligarchy, we hear the "old tunes". However, the probability of patriots protests does exist, but only in the case of open capitulation and the surrender of the country into the hands of hostile countries. Our "party of betrayal" understands the possible outcomes of their actions. They also understand that now they will not be saved by the spin on events by "experts" – there will be either a new 1612 [Russian people uniting under the leadership of Minin and Pozharsky to chase out of Kremlin noble traitors (Boyars) and Polish occupiers], or, if Russia is unlucky, 1993 [Boris Yeltsin suppressing by force with tanks parliamentary "rebellion" against his course of giving away Russia's sovereignty].

One of the most vile methods of political technologies is, if necessary, a sharp change of course, declaring the most loyal part of society as an "enemy", dividing it and, against this background, promoting one's own goal. The method is not new, the same thing happened in the United States where, instead of promoting the "American Dream", it was necessary to stretch the sodomite Schwabian agenda of social perversion, the basis of old America – its patriots were turned by politicians and media into "internal terrorists". At the same time, part of the "people's elite" was bought, the other part was declared "agents of evil" and discredited in every possible way. They received a moniker of "fascist" opposition, even if they were communists like Melenchon in France, or they were charged with criminal cases, like Steve Bannon. Everything was done to take them out of the "civilized field" of politics, divide them inside, deprive them of mass support.

In Russia, with the help of the former gray cardinal of the Kremlin, Vladislav Surkov, this action was called the "Patriotic Maidan". For the first time they started talking about it in 2014, when, against the background of the unprecedented patriotic upsurge of society since 1991, it was necessary to justify why "Russia did not come to war", did not take the entire Donbass, left Slavyansk and gave Mariupol to Akhmetov [Ukrainian oligarch, once upon a time the richest man in Ukraine originating from Donbass region] under his "most honest guarantees", which he violated two weeks later. At first there was a wave of "experts" who said that if Russia starts a war, the West will impose "terrible sanctions", followed by a wave of "Do you want our sons to die there?", "Russia is not ready" and "If Russia goes in, there will be a Third World War, and we will all die", "Ukraine will collapse by itself." One of the heralds of this wave was Rostislav Ishchenko [former employee of Ukrainian foreign affairs office that left Ukraine for Russia after 2014 and became there one of the main propaganda assets for Russian authorities], the one who now tells a story of how "Ukraine will take over Moscow."

Yes, 2021 finally showed that sanctions will be imposed anyway, because it was not about the former Ukrainian Soviet Republic, but about the fact that the West wants to eat at the expense of Russia. Russia itself still wasn't ready after 8 years, Russia's sons went to war, and the Third World War has not yet begun, because the West is sitting with diapers full and is fighting Russia from behind the backs of Ukrainians. During this time, thanks to Surkov and other traitors who stopped us in 2014, the collective West had the opportunity to turn the captured part of Donbass into a solid fortified area, a crowd of Ukrainian army recruits, who did not know from which side to approach their weapons, into trained fighters, to force millions of residents of the South of Ukraine, who were waiting for Russia, to hide in burrows, and to turn into zombies the rest of the population of the former Soviet Ukraine.

However, then the future prospects were not clear, and therefore they began to actively throw into the circulation the topic of "Patriotic Maidan", the meaning of which was that with the failure of the liberal opposition beloved and fed by Russian officials, "a certain group of patriots" is preparing riots and overthrow of the authorities on the instructions from the CIA. It is for this that these patriots "rock the boat", preventing the implementation of authorities' "cunning plans". The result is the Minsk agreements, which, as they lied to us, were supposed to bind the West's hands and feet and there is no alternative to them.

For the second time, the topic of the "patriotic Maidan" was thrown in during the "Pension Reform" [increase of the official retirement age from 60 years of age to 65 by means of which 5 years of state sponsored income was "stolen" from each citizen of Russia] highly recommended by the IMF with and signed into law in 2018. The reform was formalized by the head of the Gaidar Institute [Liberal economic think tank in Russia], Kudrin, who has undergone an internship in Canada, but it was still presented as a "cunning plan", and all those who opposed it were declared "enemies", because how dare they doubt its successful outcome? True, the "benefits" of the reform have remained on paper, but is it really important? The main thing is that it was possible to extinguish the wave of popular discontent, even at the cost of loss of the "Crimean Consensus" [Majority of Russians agreeing with Putin's decision to annex Crimea], the loss of the the popular support of the authorities and the government and even for the "patriots" Medvedev and Putin, too.

Then there was COVID-craziness, where they worked according to the same scheme as with the pension reform – anyone doubting the statements of WHO and its agents in the government of the Russian Federation and among the governors was declared an "enemy of the people" [famous video recorded by the head of RT, Margarita Simonyan, with her then deputy Krasovsky] who had to be dehumanized, humiliated, spit on, split into factions and thereby to pull through an "important initiative", subjecting to injections with a dangerous potion the largest possible number of people. However, this time the "patriotic Maidan" received serious popular support and rested on the patriots who refused to retreat before the threats.

Now the third "Patriotic Maidan" has matured in the minds of officials. Thousands of reports exist about how the Center for Information and Physiological Operations [Special joint Ukrainian and Western Military unit working in social media to demoralize the army and population of the enemy states, e.g. Russia and Belarus, abbreviated to CIPsO] (that is, not even the CIA) is preparing "patriotic riots" because of "misunderstanding of the entire big plan of the leadership." Moreover, in places the materials used are based on the same narrative as those used in 2014. They were thrown in with the hope that society has no long term memory of what happened. But not everyone is a "guppy fish" with a memory span of 3 seconds, and we remember how "contractual arrangements" with "respected Western partners" were always dragged under this, and who exactly dragged those arrangements from Yeltsin's times to this day. We remember all of those names without exception.

At the same time with these stories, we do not see a single imprisoned minister and or general, not a single exiled head of the President's Administration Office, even the oligarchs continue to milk Russia from London instead of whining in prison or running a race to help the Russian army and refugees that flooded the country. But on the other hand, we hear statements from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs about "Russia's readiness to negotiate with no preconditions" almost on the terms of Ukraine. That is, with the surrender of all newly joined republics and regions and the payment of reparations. For the sake of "to sweeten the pill", it is still proposed to leave Crimea to Russia. At the same time, the sanctions will also be left in place as it would be foolish to hope for their complete removal – how then can the Americans milk Europe?

Now we hear from Russian authorities - "The Progress is "tangible":

— The first batch of Russian fertilizers, blocked in European ports, will go to Malawi in the coming week;

— The UN calls for speeding up the lifting of all restrictions on the export of food and fertilizers from Russia;

— The United States is not against India buying Russian oil at a cost above the price ceiling;

— The London Metal Exchange (LME) has decided not to impose a ban on the supply of metals from Russia.

The Pope of Rome (he is also the pope of the CIA, he is a Masonic, etc.), and then all the officials started talking about "the possibility of peace in Ukraine." Even in Kiev, they graciously agreed to accept Putin's honorable surrender, but with mandatory punishment of Kadyrov and Prigozhin as "war criminals."

There are also enough "peacekeeping initiatives" on our part. After the allocation of a number of money transfers for the war with Russia from the World Bank, the operation of biological laboratories in Ukraine, the recognition of the artificial origin of COVID, Siluanov [Russian Minister of Finance] and Murashko [Russian Health Minister] at the G20 ministerial meeting welcomed the creation of a global pandemic response fund managed by the same World Bank. It is strange that they did not welcome the allocation of financial assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Let's add to the mix the "serious work" with oligarchs. According to Nabiullina's [Head of the Central Bank of Russia] department, there is a record outflow of capital from Russia. According to the new forecast of the Central Bank, capital outflow this year will amount to a record amount of $243 billion. This is more than three times the amount to leave the country in 2021. That's how Nabiulina and her system liberals restricted the "export of funds" from the country?

In general, again we are offered to believe their "honest words", and not our own eyes. However, shouting today that "everything has failed" is also not worth it. During this year, everything has changed many times and may change again. Things CAN change dramatically. And there are certainly no "Maidans" to be afraid of.

In reality, it will not happen now and not even after the "freeze" if such a thing follows. The "patriotic Maidan" will happen only in one case – when there is no way to hide the surrender. When Russia is going to give up Zaporozhye, Donbass and Lugansk, early presidential elections will be announced and a politician known to us and acceptable by the West, like Sobyanin [mayor of Moscow] or Kiriyenko [Deputy chief of the President's Administration Office - the most powerful "grey cardinal" in Russian politics today] , will appear on the horizon.

That's when the authorities will have to think not about profits from "Western partners", but what to do with the armed half a million people who were betrayed at the front, with millions who lost their homes, thousands who lost their loved ones. All those who demand to answer for the betrayal of the Motherland. And they will not just demand, but will stand up with this demand. This is the "patriotic Maidan", with which the Kremlin "nightingales" [in relation to Vladimir Soloviev, Kremlin's chief propagandist, who's last name translates as nightingale] frighten us today and about which Akim Apachev had written a song. It is important to understand here that those who love their Homeland and are ready to die for it are not the enemy of the state - they are the country's main stronghold. Until the elites decided to betray the Motherland themselves. And then as luck would have it, we'll have either 1612 or 1993 all over again.

RIA Katyusha

November 14, 2022