Lesson in Russian: "Dogovorniak" stands for Backroom Deal

Chances of Putin's efforts to come to an agreement with the West to end the war

Biden and Putin meet in Geneva in June of 2021. Was that the time when the fate of Ukrainian war of 2022 was sealed?

As it becomes very clear, reading the signals that are popping up here and there, preferred end to the conflict that Putin and his closest circles envision is to have a comprehensive agreement with the West, and the oil rich states that would define the rules of the game for the next 10 years, or perhaps only 5 as long term planning has become increasingly more difficult in today's situation.

There is, however, a very powerful opposition to this plan. In the West these are the hawks that go across political spectrum and continents that see current situation as a rare opportunity to destroy and to subdivide Russia taking its natural resources as the spoils of war. They represent the Western mainstream at the moment. I'll not be even naming them individually, we all know their names. In Russia this is a patriotic community that while not represented widely in the hallways of power in Kremlin, has a great influence on people's opinion that in turn generates pressures on executive power. Their argument is that it is impossible to sign a deal or agree on anything with the West, as these agreements are going to be violated the moment they'll become restrictive for the other side. And then what? Complain again that "they have cheated on us", like Putin often likes to do?

The future of Russia according to State Department sponsored “Free Nations of Russia” NGO. United States of Siberia with a blue US like flag in the middle looks particularly cute and telling.

So if the Western mainstream is against such agreement, who is for it? First of all these are the representatives of the American industrial circles, in essence the people that helped Trump to come to power in 2016. Many of these people, though not all, support the GOP in US, you can also say they are MAGA movement supporters. These circles see the end of the current financial system is approaching, with the introduction of CBDC their control could be even further diminished, so they are looking for a way to secure their strong position similar to a situation we had back in 1950s when it wasn't only the American financial capital that dominated the world, it was largely the American industrial capability and capital that was the dominant force. As a reminder, in the early fifties US represented roughly 50% of the world's GDP and these were not services and financial operations, this was hard core industry that has grown significantly during WWII. They prefer not to destroy and subdivide Russia as this brings a lot of risks associated with direct management of the newly formed entities and the risk of Russian people uprising when they realize they have fallen into a situation that is even worse than being a colony. Why bother with all of that? Russian elites are more than willing to sell their natural resources cheaply to those who are able to turn them into products - so let them deal with headaches of managing their own population and territories. These American industrialists are very pragmatic and are much less affected by ideology than neocons and neoliberals that became joined at the hip in their hatred for Russia. In the situation when real and tangible becomes more important than a number of zeros on particular bank account we can't say that these people have no chance at this game, because they do. Recent peace plan for Ukraine presented by Elon Musk comes, in my opinion, from these circles. After all, unlike other billionaires, like Jeff Bezos or Bill Gates, Elon's wealth comes from the manufacturing sector, be it SpaceX or Tesla.

The second group that Russia is actively trying to exploit as an open channel for negotiations and as supporters for the future agreement are surprisingly the Globalists. Yes, we see that open communications between Russia and the WEF have diminished somewhat, but other Globalist organizations, like UN, are continuing active collaboration with Russia on a Great Reset agenda. As an example, at the end of September in Moscow took place a forum called Ecumene 2022 dedicated to the world's future financial solutions. This forum conducted under the stewardship and participation from UN was so important that both, president Putin and prime-minister Mishustin made an address to it. What did we hear from them? Climate change, green agenda, sustainable development, Paris accord, fighting global pandemics - these initiatives are super important to Russia and it wants to become a leader in these areas. Does it remind you of the WEF playbook? Certainly it does to me. I'm guessing Putin is sending the Globalists a message: "You wanted a war to further the Great Reset agenda and to promote scarcity around the globe? I did what you wanted - I started that war. Now help us to come back to the table with those who will be defining the future state of the world. You see, even our rhetoric at the highest level is totally aligned with your message! I did my part, now you must do yours."

So, if we look even at the broader picture, what other sides do we see as either for a deal with Russia or against it?

China. Like the industrialists in US China wants a deal. Deal, first of all, would delay shifting of focus, after or if Russia is defeated and dismembered, onto China. Since, as we know, it is not even what China does or what it intends to do. It is about capabilities and potential and China has grown a lot of it during the last three decades. So, according to "neoconlibs" party it must be if not destroyed, then significantly diminished in capabilities and shown its place in the pecking order. China is also benefiting from the Russian export efforts shifting to the East from Europe, as it not only it gets greater availability of the needed resources, but it can buy them at a significantly reduced prices. So, why would they mess with a good thing?

India. India also wants a deal. India simply has no interest in seeing Russia destroyed or thrown completely out from the circle of the countries that have a say in international politics. This has to do with a long standing good relationship between Russia (USSR) and India since India gained independence in 1947. It also benefits from the Russian shift to the East in the same way as China does - greater access to natural resources at lower prices. There are and will be attempts to dissuade India from this course, but under PM Modi it has sufficient will power for making decisions in India's interests.

Turkey, Iran and the greater Middle East. All want to see a deal done. Losing Russia as at least some counterbalance to the Western policies in the region would literally mean disastrous consequences for them. So, why take the risk to see who is going to prevail in this war, Russia or the West? Let the deal happen, especially if Russia wants it.

Ukraine. Well, who cares about Ukraine? Did you really think it was about Ukraine? But, after a healthy dose of sarcasm, I have to say that we should care about Ukraine. Many billions of dollars and decades of time were used to charge Ukrainians with ultra-nationalist ideology and to mobilize Ukrainian population to a war with Russia. Ukraine, both at the people's level and the government level wants no deals, especially when Russia shows weakness after weakness in how it handles negotiations and the war overall. They want the war to the victorious end. Their opinion will have to be taken into account, because if it won't, Ukraine can torpedo any agreement concluded without their consent. The sense of inculpability cultivated among Ukrainians by the West, when they could do anything - burn people alive, kill off pro-russian opposition, prohibit all opposition political parties, kill civilians of Donbass for 8 plus years non-stop, and many other things impossible in other places, without having as much as a finger raised at them will be very difficult to overcome. Any weak attempts to point to Ukrainian wrongdoing like Amnesty International's report did pointing out that Ukraine is using civilians and civilian infrastructure to mount their defenses are met with a temper tantrum and then the "offender", in this case Amnesty International, is first silenced and then made to revert their findings.

To summarize.

For the deal are: Russian elites, American industrialists, China, India, Turkey, Iran and the Middle East. Rest of the world doesn't care much if there is going to be a deal or there won't.

Against the deal are: Western mainstream, Russian patriots and majority of population (probably a slight majority). Ukrainian elites along with majority of Ukrainian population (probably at around 70%).

As we can see, both are powerful and influential blocks and the probability of the deal to a great extent will depend on two factors:

1. The outcomes of the US midterm elections in early November.

2. How cold the coming winter is going to be and how much hardship European population is going to endure before mass protests because of the high energy prices and record inflation.

In any case, I don't believe that any breakthroughs can be achieved in the near future as both sides see the possibility of a victory, but especially the anti-deal side that pins high hopes on destabilization of the situation inside of Russia with all the favorable for them consequences of such a turn of events. But spring time, probably by April 2023, is going to bring us much more clarity on which way did the situation turn.

So, if the deal is good for Russia, why, you may ask, did Russian people gave it such a derogatory term - "dogovorniak” (regular word for an agreement, a deal is “dogovor”), that does not translate exactly as a backroom deal. What it means is when two parties playing sworn enemies on the outside enter into a covert dirty deal, while continuing to fool the plebs with their false spirit elevating speeches.

The sense that the entire SMO from the very beginning was not about the stated goals - demilitarization, denazification, neutral status and so on begun to creep up very early. Now it is pretty clear to any attentive observer that the main goal was not to transform Ukraine per se, but to create a more favorable conditions for the big negotiations with the West about Russia's place in the NWO. Judging just by the military part of it, despite the self imposed restrictions, like the lack of aerial bombing of the key infrastructure in Ukraine, including power plants, railroads, bridges and tunnels, government and military decision making centers. Even despite of that the first 10 days of the SMO were a success. But then we've got a sense that pro-deal part of the Russian elites got cold feet from the fact that Russian military bit off a piece too large to digest and begun a retreat giving up achievements of the first phase bit-by-bit. The process is still ongoing. Interpretation of the intelligence signals tells me that the next occupied or liberated region (whichever way suits your position) to be given up by Russian forces is going to be Kherson. I think that Zaporozhye nuclear power plant is also going to be returned to Kiev's regime in the name of the holly "dogovorniak". US style of negotiations is to get the strongest possible position and then to menace to take even more. US concludes the deals on their promise not to execute their threats. In Russia, at least in Putin's Russia, the style is entirely different - give in some, and then give in some more without receiving anything in exchange. All the meanwhile talking about goodwill and how Russia is not like her opponents in generosity and nobility! This became so well established, it is impossible to deny it. The case of Crimea is an exception that confirms the rule.

What about the Russian population? Aren't they going to protest ongoing acts of high treason? Perhaps, maybe later, but at this point the ruling elites are successful at impeding such actions using psychological techniques causing cognitive dissonance among the people that have a great demoralizing and deactivating effect. For example, when Putin had announced mobilization and referendums in the four Ukrainian regions on their desire to join Russia, the same day the ugliest exchange deal to date was performed, when all the Azov regiment soldiers (215 in total), along with their commanders and those among them who confessed to committing crimes against civilians were exchanged for 55 Russian PoWs and Putin's old friend from Ukraine that played a big role in misinformation leading to the start of an SMO, Victor Medvedchuk.

Examples such as this are numerous, but I hope you are getting a sense of how the population protest potential is being capped. We have to admit that Russian internal state machine has become a lot more sophisticated at mind manipulation technology as compared to the Soviet Communist party bozos (greetings to Bezmenov).

Overall, as you can see, the situation, including the deal is far from being decided. We'll have to wait patiently for the outcome, but not for too long, in my opinion.